SYDNEY, Mar 10 (IPS) – Talking on the latest annual convention of the Bangladesh Administrative Service Affiliation, Chief Adviser Dr Muhammad Yunus has emphasised the necessity to create alternatives for younger individuals, asserting that Bangladesh’s giant inhabitants just isn’t a burden however a worthwhile useful resource.
A day later, Deputy Commissioners (DCs) proposed the introduction of common navy coaching for teens, aiming to contain them within the nation’s defence efforts.
In fact, it is a political determination, and it requires severe examinations of the proposed programme’s budgetary implications.
We’ve achieved some preliminary finances estimates. The excellent news is that we will introduce the programme progressively over 5-8 years, say starting with 10% of these turning 18 years as a pilot after which steadily cowl your entire cohort of 18-20 years previous who’re capable of serve.
The context – seismic demographic shift
In 50 years since independence, Bangladesh’s inhabitants greater than doubled from round 70 million (7 crore) to round 174 million (17 crore), turning Bangladesh as some of the densely populated international locations on the earth. Regardless of a speedy fall in fertility, Bangladesh’s inhabitants will proceed to develop largely as a result of momentum impact. UN Inhabitants Division initiatives that Bangladesh’s complete inhabitants will attain its peak in 2071 with a inhabitants of 226 million.
Bangladesh is effectively into the third part of demographic transition, having shifted from a excessive mortality-high fertility regime to a low mortality-low fertility one. As proven within the inhabitants pyramid (Determine 1), there’s a youth bulge comprising about 28% of the inhabitants within the age bracket 15-29.
Determine 1: Bangladesh’s inhabitants by age (2024)
The UN initiatives that by 2030, the proportion of youth within the age bracket 15-29 years will decline to round 25% and by 2050 to round 20%. So, that is our demographic second that comes solely as soon as (see Determine 2).
As Professor Yunus harassed, younger inhabitants is a blessing – a supply of energy, power and vigour. A rustic with a lot of younger individuals not solely has a big pool of labor drive, but additionally a big pool of potential future leaders – also known as “demographic dividend”.
Nonetheless, demographic dividend just isn’t prearranged. It is a chance offered by the age structural transition. This window of alternative opens for a inhabitants solely as soon as. If missed, it might develop into a “demographic curse”.
A rustic can “develop into previous earlier than turning into developed” – as we see within the case of Sri Lanka- characterised by a big proportion of aged inhabitants (non-working age) whereas the nation nonetheless struggles with poverty and infrastructure points. Thus, the nation not solely has fewer working-age individuals (i.e., a smaller work drive), but additionally has to help a lot of individuals of their older age. Such a demographic state of affairs probably hinders a rustic’s financial progress and creates challenges for its social welfare techniques.
Thus, a rise within the proportion of younger individuals in a rustic’s inhabitants construction can convey an enormous dividend offered this uncooked energy is transformed into extremely expert human sources, absorbed in productive employment and become entrepreneurs.
This may be proven by decomposing the neo-classical manufacturing operate as follows: Y/P = Y/SE x SE/E x E/LF x LF/WP x WP/P, the place Y = GDP, P = inhabitants, E = employment, SE = expert employment, LF = labour drive, WP = working-age inhabitants.
Thus, GDP per capita (Y/P) is the product of:
- productiveness beneficial properties because of expert employment (Y/SE),
- proportion of expert employment (SE/E),
- employment fee (E/LF),
- labour drive participation fee (LF/WP) and
- demography, i.e., proportion of working age inhabitants (WP/P).
Bangladesh’s demographic dividend could develop into a mirage. The latest pupil/youth unrest which started with a requirement for quota reform and in the end toppled the Hasina regime is a transparent indication of the economic system’s lack of ability to soak up these youthful individuals in productive employment or flip them into entrepreneurs. The official unemployment determine of about 3-4% primarily based on outdated labour drive survey methodology doesn’t mirror the fact.
Nationwide service – a possible pressing answer
Our most important problem is stopping demographic curse and reaping demographic dividend. Necessary nationwide service, comprising some fundamental defence coaching, IT and basic literacy-numeracy and vocational abilities, is not going to solely convey huge financial advantages, but additionally put together the nation for catastrophe administration, particularly because of local weather disaster. It would additionally act as an efficient deterrent in opposition to doable risk to our nationwide sovereignty.
At the moment, we now have round 1.6 crore (15.9 million) youths within the age bracket 20-24 – roughly 87 lakh females and 73 lakh males. Of the youth turning 18 years, about 29 lakh are capable of serve, excluding child-bearing females (round 25%) and people with numerous disabilities.
If 10% of the youth turning 18 years are included within the programme within the first yr, and Tk 12,000 per thirty days (equal to the present minimal wage) is used for every participant, then 5.8% of the full 2024-25 finances proposed by the fallen regime would been required for defence. That is marginally greater than 5.3% allotted within the proposed 2024-25 finances. This determine rises to five.9% and 6.2% if coaching every participant requires Tk15,000 and Tk20,000, respectively.
The above tough and prepared estimates assume no change within the exiting allocation for different defence bills. Nor does the train take into account effectivity beneficial properties.
Clearly, budgeting can’t be achieved in isolation. The primary place to seek out cash is reallocation as required by reprioritisation. It must be talked about right here that the fallen regime in its final finances proposed for 2024-25 in June 2024, elevated defence finances by 11% over the revised defence finances for 2023–24. Due to this fact, this must be examined significantly; the priorities of the ‘new Bangladesh’ can’t be the identical because the fallen regime’s.
Cash may come from the financial savings which may lead to different sectors, e.g., training as there shall be diminished stress to broaden post- secondary training. If vital, the prices of such programmes must be shared by means of greater taxes for the sake of securing a affluent way forward for this nation.
Empowering the youth
Coaching and talent growth by means of necessary nationwide service is only one component within the provide aspect of the equation. The pool of accessible expertise must be empowered and deployed to yield demographic dividend. In any other case, will probably be wasted and should even flip right into a disruptive drive.
Our most important problem is stopping demographic curse. Not solely we now have to reap demographic dividend, but additionally guarantee what’s referred to within the literature as ‘second demographic dividend’. Whereas the ‘first demographic dividend’ as a result of rise within the proportion of working-age inhabitants is transitory, the ‘second demographic dividend’ will be perpetual.
For this to occur international locations must spend money on talent upgrading, help entrepreneurial initiatives and revolutionary/versatile work surroundings to permit working even in older age and asset accumulation by employees.
Particularly, given the development in know-how, and significantly Synthetic Intelligence (AI), we urgently must rethink talent growth for our youth. Many college levels could quickly develop into out of date as a result of the abilities they provide are vulnerable to automation.
Sarcastically, many blue-collar, hands-on jobs are more likely to survive as a result of they require psychological and motor abilities people have developed over millennia and are actually troublesome to automate. We take into account them low-skill as a result of we take these abilities as a right. Alternatively, jobs which require high-level vital considering will even survive. We want pressing actions to stop our youth from falling into the “center”.
Act now
Professor Yunus has rightly understood the important thing message of youth revolt that the youth must be positioned on the coronary heart of methods as they’re dedicated to creating a brand new world which is inclusive, truthful and simply. Due to this fact, it’s logical that his authorities initiates the measures when the aspirations of the revolution are nonetheless contemporary within the minds.
Anis Chowdhury, Emeritus Professor, Western Sydney College (Australia); held senior UN positions at Bangkok & New York in financial & social affairs
Khalid Saifullah, Statistician with years of expertise working in worldwide organisations
This opinion editorial was first printed in New Age (24 Feb. 2025), Dhaka, Bangladesh
IPS UN Bureau
© Inter Press Service (2025) — All Rights Reserved. Unique supply: Inter Press Service
