How Trump’s ‘drill, child, drill’ pledge is affecting different international locations

The UN local weather summit within the United Arab Emirates in 2023 ended with a name to “transition away from fossil fuels”. It was applauded as a historic milestone in world local weather motion.

Barely a 12 months later, nonetheless, there are fears that the worldwide dedication could also be dropping momentum, as the expansion of unpolluted vitality transition is slowing down whereas burning of fossil fuels continues to rise.

And now there may be US President Donald Trump’s “nationwide vitality emergency”, embracing fossil fuels and ditching clear vitality insurance policies – that has additionally begun to affect some international locations and vitality firms already.

In response to Trump’s “drill, child, drill” slogan geared toward ramping up fossil gas extraction, and the US notifying the UN of its withdrawal from the Paris local weather settlement, Indonesia, as an illustration, has hinted that it might observe go well with.

“If the USA doesn’t wish to adjust to the worldwide settlement, why ought to a rustic like Indonesia adjust to it?” requested Hashim Djojohadikusumo, particular envoy for local weather change and vitality of Indonesia, as reported by the nation’s government-run information company Antara.

Indonesia has remained within the checklist of high 10 carbon-emitting international locations for years now.

“Indonesia produces three tons of carbon [per person a year] whereas the US produces 13 tons,” he requested on the ESG Sustainable Discussion board 2025 in Jakarta on 31 January.

“But we’re those being advised to shut our energy vegetation… So, the place is the sense of justice right here?”

Nithi Nesadurai, director with Local weather Motion Community Southeast Asia, mentioned the alerts from her area had been regarding.

She mentioned the “richest nation and the most important oil producer on the earth” growing its manufacturing provides different states “a simple excuse to extend their very own – which they’re already doing”.

In South Africa, Africa’s largest financial system and a serious carbon emitter, a $8.5bn foreign-aided transition undertaking from the coal sector was already transferring at a snail’s tempo, and now there are fears that it might get derailed additional.

Wikus Kruger, director of Energy Futures Lab on the College of Cape City, mentioned there was a “risk” that decommissioning of outdated coal-fired energy stations could be “additional delayed”.

Nonetheless he mentioned that whereas there was some “stroll again” from transition to renewables, there was nonetheless development within the clear vitality sector that was anticipated to proceed.

Argentina withdrew its negotiators from the COP29 local weather assembly in Baku final November, days after Trump received the US presidency. It has since adopted Trump’s lead in signalling it would withdraw from the Paris Settlement of 2015 – which underpins world efforts to fight local weather change.

“We now anticipate our oil and gasoline manufacturing to go up,” Enrique Viale, president of the Argentine Affiliation of Environmental Legal professionals, advised the BBC.

“President Milei has hinted that he intends to withdraw from the Paris Settlement and has mentioned environmentalism is a part of the woke agenda.”

In the meantime, vitality big Equinor has simply introduced it’s halving funding in renewable vitality over the following two years whereas growing oil and gasoline manufacturing, and one other oil main, BP, is anticipated to make a comparable announcement quickly.

Trump has not simply mentioned “drill, child, drill” but additionally: “We’ll export American vitality everywhere in the world.”

Potential overseas patrons are already lining up.

India and the US have agreed to considerably enhance the availability of American oil and gasoline to the Indian market.

On the finish of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s US go to on 14 February, the 2 international locations issued a joint assertion that “reaffirmed” the US could be “a number one provider of crude oil and petroleum merchandise and liquified pure gasoline to India”.

A number of days after Trump’s inauguration, South Korea, the world’s third largest liquified pure gasoline importer, has hinted its intention to purchase extra American oil and gasoline geared toward lowering a commerce surplus with the US and enhancing vitality safety, worldwide media have reported from Seoul.

Officers with Japan’s largest energy generator, JERA, have advised Reuters they too wish to enhance purchases of liquified pure gasoline from the US to diversify provide, because it presently imports half of it from the Asia-Pacific area.

“There’s definitely a risk that if the US seeks to both flood markets with low cost fossil fuels, or bully international locations into shopping for extra of its fossil fuels, or each, the worldwide vitality transition is likely to be slowed,” mentioned Lorne Stockman, analysis director with Oil Change Worldwide, a analysis and advocacy organisation for transition to scrub vitality.

Scientists have mentioned there will be no new fossil gas extraction and there must be a fast discount of carbon emissions (round 45% by 2030 from the 2019 stage) if the world is to restrict warming to 1.5 Celsius in comparison with the pre-industrial interval.

“The economics of vitality provide are a key driver of decarbonisation,” mentioned David Brown, director of vitality transition observe at Wooden Mackenzie, a world vitality think-tank.

“The useful resource base of US vitality helps the position of pure gasoline and liquids manufacturing. In contrast, import-dependent economies similar to China, India, and people in Southeast Asia have a dramatic financial incentive to decarbonise sources of vitality.”

International vitality transition funding surpassed $2tn for the primary time final 12 months however research have additionally proven that the development of unpolluted vitality transition has markedly slowed lately, whereas many main banks proceed to finance fossil fuels.