SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The outcomes of the 2024 European Parliament elections noticed each vital positive factors for far-right events – in France, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands – and a strengthening of the center-right European Individuals’s Social gathering (EPP), which noticed its share of seats rise from 176 to 190. This bolstered the EPP’s function as a central participant within the European Parliament and a key voice in EU coverage and management appointments.
The large winners amongst far-right events have been Marine Le Pen’s Nationwide Rally in France and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, that means the far proper’s voices will probably be extra influential within the European Parliament on points starting from immigration to Ukraine to spending typically.
To investigate the winners and losers within the EU elections and their impression on European affairs, The Cipher Transient spoke with Mikuláš Dzurinda, a former Prime Minister of Slovakia and at present President of the EPP’s assume tank, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Research. Dzurinda mentioned the potential impression of the elections in a dialog with Ia Meurmishvili, The Cipher Transient’s Chief Worldwide Correspondent. Dzurinda additionally spoke concerning the “large problem” of disinformation campaigns in Europe, and voiced assist for more durable controls over social media content material.
THE CONTEXT
- The middle-right European Individuals’s Social gathering (EPP) secured 190 seats within the European Parliament within the June 6-9 election. The EPP now has 1 / 4 of the physique’s 720 seats, making it finest poised to set European Union.
- Far-right teams additionally made main positive factors throughout the bloc, together with in France and Italy. Total, some 150 seats within the European Parliament have been gained by far-right events.
- Ursula von der Leyen is in search of a second time period as president of the European Fee. She is a transparent frontrunner, because the lead candidate of the European Individuals’s Social gathering.
- French President Emmanuel Macron referred to as for a snap election from June 30-July 7, after positive factors by France’s far-right within the European Parliament elections.
- U.Okay. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak additionally has referred to as for a snap election, in Britain’s case for July 4, months sooner than normal elections have been anticipated.
THE INTERVIEW
Mikuláš Dzurinda
Mikuláš Dzurinda is the previous prime minister of Slovakia (1998-2006) and has held numerous positions in authorities since first coming into politics in 1990. As soon as he turned prime minister and shaped a coalition authorities in 1998, Dzurinda launched far-reaching reforms which have enabled Slovakia to start the method of becoming a member of the EU and NATO. After being re-elected in 2002, Dzurinda led Slovakia to grow to be a member of the EU and NATO in 2004, a course of which he actively took half in from the start. Slovakia gained independence in 1993.
This interview has been frivolously edited for brevity and readability.
The Cipher Transient: A lot of the worldwide media reported concerning the far-right positive factors on the EU elections. How do you’re taking the outcomes of the elections?
Dzurinda: I don’t assume that the state of affairs is so dramatic. Look, it’s true that Madame (Marine) Le Pen scored some positive factors, however we, the European Individuals’s Social gathering, gained much more. I’m somewhat extra optimistic than pessimistic. I’m completely happy as a result of my household, the European Individuals’s Social gathering, gained closely and that’s large. I might say there’s a large coalition potential on our facet.
The Cipher Transient: What do you concentrate on the ends in particular person international locations – about Germany, for instance, and Hungary? There have been some surprising outcomes, possibly in each, and in Slovakia as nicely.
Dzurinda: You’re proper. However look, let’s begin with the primary. In my eyes, the worst is France. As a result of Madame Le Pen shouldn’t be solely very sturdy as of late, she can be very harmful in my thoughts and France issues lots. We each know that very nicely.
A greater state of affairs is in Germany. On one facet, the AFD (Different for Germany) can be harmful they usually completed in second place, successful over the socialists. There may be additionally large excellent news – the Christian Democratic Union’s (victory). Friedrich Merz, the long run German chancellor, will assist Europe and transatlantic relations lots.
Even in Hungary, at first sight, you will be pessimistic as a result of Viktor Orban continues to be there. However there’s additionally large excellent news in Hungary. The brand new chief of the opposition, Peter Magyar, scored virtually 30%. He’s younger, he’s charismatic. He needs to hitch the European Individuals’s Social gathering, our household, so I take Hungary (as) a constructive somewhat than unfavourable.
The Cipher Transient: He created the celebration three months in the past – and that’s what was shocking to everyone in Hungary, that in a single day he gained this unimaginable variety of votes and seats.
Dzurinda: Precisely, and it demonstrates that folks possibly are fed up with Viktor Orban, and that Hungarians understand very nicely that the EU is a good venture, that this can be very vital additionally for them, for the Hungarians. The identical state of affairs in Slovakia – I’m very sad as a result of we, the EPP household, suffered – we misplaced three of 4 MEPs. However once more, the excellent news is that our liberal political celebration gained the elections over (Prime Minister Robert) Fico. So there’s additionally a very good hope in Slovakia, and ultimately we are going to beat these anti-European forces.
The Cipher Transient: Let’s discuss a bit extra about France. President Macron referred to as early elections in France primarily based on the outcomes of the European Parliament elections. What do you make of that? Is {that a} good resolution? Dangerous resolution?
Dzurinda: It’s possibly a somewhat chaotic resolution. I can think about how depressed Mr. Macron turned after watching the ultimate end result. And on the opposite facet, as a politician, I can perceive that one thing needed to be carried out by him. So to some extent, his resolution to name for a snap election will be understood. I anticipate a brand new cohabitation in France, when Mr. Macron will keep because the president of the nation and the federal government will probably be dominated by the Nationwide Rally, (the celebration of ) Madame Le Pen, with possibly a brand new star, a brand new prime minister. There’s a saying that all the things unhealthy comes with one thing good, and possibly the excellent news is that the celebration of Madame Le Pen will probably be actually incompetent after working the nation for half a yr, one yr or two years, we are going to see. However anyway, it’s a shocking improvement there.
The Cipher Transient: So possibly that’s what President Macron is relying on – to allow them to fail?
Dzurinda: Perhaps. Perhaps it’s to some extent an emotional resolution, a chaotic resolution. However on the opposite facet, there’s additionally one thing rational past that.
The Cipher Transient: Let’s discuss (European Fee President) Ursula von der Leyen. It looks like her positions are very sturdy and he or she made it identified that she needs a second time period because the president. How do you assume her probabilities look? There have been conversations about (her) aligning with Italian [Prime Minister] Meloni as nicely. Do you assume that’s potential?
Dzurinda: Von der Leyen’s place immediately is far stronger than earlier than the elections. Some persons are drained or fed up together with her, as a result of don’t overlook, we went by main crises. First, it was immigration, second, it was the pandemic, and final however not least, we confronted the conflict of Russia towards Ukraine. So one can think about that some individuals have been a bit drained with this fee. However after the elections, it’s clear that she has carried out an incredible job. She was very affected person. She was capable of attain compromises. And you realize very nicely that Europe is predicated on compromise.
So immediately I’m fairly optimistic. And I imagine that many individuals, and plenty of MEPs (members of the European Parliament), prime ministers, might have been hesitating about her, however now they understand very nicely that there’s just one choice left – to reelect Ursula von der Leyen. And that is my expectation.
In the case of technique, she’s performed nicely in my eyes. She says, Let’s discuss three main points: The primary is the rule of regulation, democracy. The second is our devotion to our European Home. And quantity three is Ukraine, and I’m prepared to speak to each political faction who’s following and respecting these three fundamental rules.
She is opening the door not just for the Greens from the left, but in addition from the ECR from the best. Madame Meloni made us shocked up to now. The girl shouldn’t be solely very rational, but in addition devoted to democracy, rule of regulation, and final however not least, to Ukraine as nicely.
The Cipher Transient: Do you assume there will probably be a brand new (European) excessive commissioner for protection?
Dzurinda: I might vote for that. Perhaps you can be shocked. However on the Marten Centre, the assume tank of the Individuals’s Social gathering, we got here up with the thought of European protection as an integral a part of NATO in 2016. On the time, I used to be confronted by many individuals in Europe (asking), What do I need? However we thought, particularly after 2014, after (Russia’s) annexation of Crimea, that the state of affairs is critical. And I nonetheless imagine that this case could be very critical. America is busy, and will probably be very, very busy with China, with the Indo-Pacific, and we’ve Ukraine. That is our neighbor, our instant neighborhood. Now we’ve the Center East disaster and plenty of different challenges. We have to be stronger, and we have to grow to be a dependable, full-fledged accomplice of the USA on this transatlantic household.
The Cipher Transient: We’ve got snap elections arising within the UK, in France. We’ve got elections in the USA. What are your expectations of those elections and what do you assume their impression could be on transatlantic relations?
Dzurinda: It is a essential problem. The axis between the USA and the UK was so vital and essential within the time of the Chilly Warfare, for safety, for the way forward for transatlantic relations and democratic international locations.
In these occasions, possibly there’s not a lot purpose to be optimistic, however I need to be optimistic. I feel as a result of custom and likewise as a result of understanding that we want one another. Even in the USA, I’m not so tragically pessimistic. In the case of the potential victory of Donald Trump, I imagine that this axis between the UK and the USA will proceed, and that the EU ought to assist. The EU ought to contribute on this route to spice up this custom of the axis.
The most important query mark in my eyes is France. On one facet, the French president could be very sturdy. very nicely that he has very sturdy competence. On the opposite facet, I’m considering an increasing number of concerning the subsequent presidential elections in France. If the development continues, it implies that Madame Le Pen on the finish of the day will grow to be the French president. On this case, I imagine that she is going to modify a bit her method. Everybody was shocked by Madame Meloni’s insurance policies (in Italy). I imagine that additionally within the case of Marine Le Pen we could also be shocked. Consider me, I’ve some expertise, and the phrase seems totally different in case you look (on the state of affairs) in case you are on the horse, in comparison with if you find yourself standing subsequent to the horse – the state of affairs is totally totally different. You could have accountability. Individuals are not solely not solely watching however anticipating.
The Cipher Transient: I’d like to speak to you about disinformation. These days, in democracies, this has been a really massive problem. In some instances, there are claims that disinformation truly performed some function within the final result of the elections. Did you see it as a difficulty throughout these elections within the EU? Do you see it as a bigger problem and do you might have any recommendations on the way to counter it?
Dzurinda: There’s a large problem going through us – this disinformation and propaganda. We’re very completely happy that we’re free, and you may write what you need or you possibly can publish on social media, however what we miss is the connection between freedom and accountability. So now we must always assume extra severely about this second dimension of accountability. I’m going to say one thing unpopular: (we must always take into consideration) the way to management social media, the way to make individuals accountable for all the things which they’re publishing.
It isn’t straightforward. Russian propaganda particularly – it is rather, very influential. It occurs not solely to Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, the international locations of the previous communist bloc. It occurs in France, it occurs in Greece, in Italy, that is actually an enormous, large problem laying forward of us. And it’s not simply social media media retailers. There are additionally many operations of diplomats, official diplomats within the embassies in our international locations.
The Cipher Transient: And do you see that persons are waking as much as it, or persons are objecting to it in any manner?
Dzurinda: Not sufficiently. It is extremely patchy. For some individuals, it’s simpler to imagine in such catchy eventualities.
The Cipher Transient:And more often than not these eventualities are very emotional.
Dzurinda: Not solely emotional, but in addition related or associated to your difficulties. In a free world, you haven’t solely the winners, you might have additionally individuals which can be dissatisfied and even individuals who misplaced lots – and propaganda, disinformation, particularly from the Kremlin, could be very, very efficient to handle, to succeed in out to those individuals.
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