You may rewind again to the ultimate sport of any of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ campaigns over the previous half-decade, and also you’d possible discover the identical sentiment among the many followers that pack the Scotiabank Enviornment stands. Change was wanted.
That appeared true sufficient after a pair of notably disappointing first-round exits by the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Montreal Canadiens, after some tumultuous run-ins with a pair Floridian golf equipment and within the wake of final 12 months’s seven-game stumble towards the Boston Bruins, too.
On the heels of that final one, the Maple Leafs brass appeared to really feel the identical. The membership ended Sheldon Keefe’s time on the helm only one week after Toronto’s Recreation 7 loss to Boston in Could. One week after that, Craig Berube was handed the keys, the no-nonsense bench boss introduced in to carry extra accountability, and extra jam, to a gaggle that’s appeared unable to get a deal with on playoff hockey.
One third of the way in which via Berube’s first season in Toronto, the membership’s new identification is starting to take form: low-event hockey that’s much more reliant on regular goaltending and stout defence than high-flying offensive showcases.
You don’t have to have an intricate information of the Maple Leafs’ strategy over the previous few years to know this new identification represents a stark departure from what we’ve seen of the Core 4 Period thus far. However how totally different, precisely, has the membership appeared this season?
Taking inventory of how the crew has carried out thus far in 2024-25, in comparison with the place they had been via the identical variety of video games final season, offers us some sense of it.
Recent off Tuesday’s hard-fought victory over Keefe’s New Jersey Devils, right here’s a more in-depth take a look at how Berube’s Maple Leafs have fared to date in comparison with final season’s group.
Within the massive image, the Maple Leafs sit on an identical trajectory with a 17-9-2 file and 36 factors to their title, good for second within the Atlantic Division and fifth within the East. By means of the identical variety of video games final season, Keefe’s Leafs sported a 16-6-6 file and 38 factors.
On the offensive aspect, it’s clear Berube’s Maple Leafs have taken a step again. They’ve amassed 20 fewer objectives this season than that they had by this level a 12 months in the past, placing up 82 objectives in 2024-25 in comparison with 102 final season. That dip’s seen Toronto’s goals-per-game fee drop from 3.64 to 2.93. On the opposite aspect of the puck, although, the membership’s tightened up defensively, permitting 17 fewer objectives than it did a 12 months in the past — they’ve been crushed 72 instances, in comparison with 89 by this level final season, that shift seeing their goals-against-per-game drop from 3.18 to 2.57.
Living proof for the way Berube has shifted his new membership’s identification from high-flying offence to stout defence: By this level in 2023-24, Keefe’s Maple Leafs ranked among the many elite offensively and middle-of-the-pack defensively (their goals-per-game fee rating second within the league, whereas they sat seventeenth in goals-against-per-game). This season, that’s been flipped: Berube’s membership sits twenty first when it comes to their goals-per-game fee, however fifth league-wide in goals-against-per-game.
At even power, it’s an identical story. The Maple Leafs ranked fourth within the league in even-strength objectives per 60 minutes by this level final season (3.22) — now, they sit twentieth (2.91). On the opposite aspect, they ranked seventeenth league-wide in objectives towards per 60 by this level final season (2.81) and presently discover themselves fifth within the league (2.55).
The brand new coach’s affinity for low-event hockey is coming via too — after averaging 32.9 pictures per sport and permitting 32.5 pictures towards per sport via the primary third of final season, Berube’s Leafs are averaging solely 28.6 pictures and giving up simply 29 towards per sport.
In fact, there is a vital piece of context that’s impacted every of these offensive numbers this season: the harm that sidelined Auston Matthews for a number of weeks. The reigning Rocket Richard Trophy winner missed 9 video games in November, robbing the Maple Leafs of their most prolific scorer (although the membership did nicely in his absence, going 7-2 with out him). Past the crew’s total offensive effectiveness, the captain’s absence certainly impacted his membership’s power-play numbers — the tumultuous unit sported a 25.9 per cent success fee by this time final season, however sits at 19 per cent to date this 12 months. On the opposite aspect of the puck, the penalty kill has been pretty constant, clicking at a fee of 80 per cent final season and 83 per cent to date this season.
With Matthews out, it’s been Mitch Marner pacing the membership in scoring to date in 2024-25, the winger sitting with 38 factors on the marketing campaign, whereas William Nylander leads the crew with 17 objectives. By means of as many video games final season, Matthews led within the objectives division with 23 to his title, whereas Nylander paced the membership with 40 factors.
Past the offence, the sluggish transition to Berube’s type has yielded some odd variations all through the remainder of the Maple Leafs’ play. For instance, for as hard-nosed as their new bench boss could also be, this season’s Leafs are hitting much less and racking up fewer penalty minutes than they did via the primary third of the 2023-24 season. They’re additionally blocking roughly the identical variety of pictures as they did beneath Keefe final season, whereas giving freely the puck extra and taking it away from the opposition much less. There was one hyper-specific change that the Maple Leafs devoted will gladly take, although: By this time final 12 months, the Maple Leafs had already collected eight bench minors — to date this season, they’ve dedicated solely a pair.
Stifled offence and bettering defence apart, there’s no shift that’s taken place for these Maple Leafs that’s had extra of an impression than what’s transpired with the membership’s goaltending, the regular play in Toronto’s cage by far essentially the most unfamiliar facet of the crew’s season so far.
Rewind again to this time final 12 months, with a 3rd of the 2023-24 marketing campaign within the books, and the Maple Leafs’ goaltenders — led by a tandem of Joseph Woll and Ilya Samsonov — had been floundering. Neither of the crew’s common netminders ranked within the high 10 in any main statistical class. At even power, neither ranked within the high 20.
Quick-forward to the right here and now, and the membership’s goaltending has been its biggest power.
Simply shy of the 30-game mark on the season, Anthony Stolarz and Woll each rank high 5 in save share and goals-against common amongst netminders who’ve performed greater than a handful of video games. Stolarz, particularly, has been the story of the season to date for the blue-and-white, the 2024 Cup champ’s elite play between the pipes permitting the Maple Leafs to stack wins at the same time as their offence has seemingly taken a step again. The 30-year-old boasts the league’s greatest total save share (.928), the league’s greatest save share at 5-on-5 (.953) and the league’s fifth-best high-danger save share at 5-on-5 (.863). Behind him, Woll’s had a resurgent marketing campaign since returning to the fold too, bettering on the shape he confirmed via the early going of 2023-24 and rating among the many high 10 in every of these classes as nicely.
All instructed, it appears Berube’s imaginative and prescient for the membership is taking form, with the 2024-25 Maple Leafs’ type already shading extra in the direction of low-event, defensive hockey. In some areas of the sheet, progress and outcomes have come, and adjustments apart, the crew has maintained the extent it is proven within the common season for the previous half-decade, sitting second within the division via one third of the marketing campaign.
Nonetheless, there are points to kind out, primarily determining breathe life again into an offence that has thus far lacked the explosiveness it’s confirmed previously — an offence led by 4 of the highest-paid forwards within the sport. They’ve loads of time to place all of it collectively, after all. And within the meantime, the success of Toronto’s new goaltending tandem has lessened the strain to kind out the problems that stay.
