The Roar’s AFL skilled ideas and predictions, Spherical 24: Three would not go into two

If you happen to’re a Carlton, Fremantle or Western Bulldogs supporter, then be warned: you’re in for a worrying few days.

The AFL’s rigorously crafted last spherical fixture has had its desired end result, with the destiny of the eight going proper all the way down to the wire with three video games back-to-back on Sunday to resolve which two of these three groups will reside to battle one other day in essentially the most open finals collection in lots of a 12 months… and who could have their hearts ripped out in entrance of the complete nation.

That’s, except Hawthorn someway contrive to lose to North Melbourne on Saturday. Stranger issues have occurred, proper?

However the battle for September isn’t the one drama set to take centre stage this weekend: Port Adelaide and GWS may also be vying to safe second spot and a house qualifying last on Sunday – and so they’ll know full effectively whether or not Geelong, as anticipated, have bullied West Coast on Saturday to shut the share hole and make a loss a dangerous endeavour.

And whereas they’re all however protected within the eight, Brisbane face Essendon understanding {that a} third consecutive loss for the one-time flag favourites would thrust them into away elimination last territory – the stakes merely couldn’t be larger.

For one last time within the home-and-away season, we ask the query: who wins?

Tim Miller

Final week: 5

Collingwood, Geelong, Richmond, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Fremantle

Perhaps it’s simply the stress of a protracted, painful season for us tipsters, or possibly the agonising wait to see if my staff goes to let me down once more on Sunday afternoon, however I’m going fully rogue with my ideas this week.

Having watched them lose abysmally to West Coast and Melbourne within the final three weeks, and solely beat Essendon due to a kick after the siren, it appears to me like Gold Coast have shut up store – and with Richmond getting the possibility to farewell some legends on a Saturday afternoon on the MCG, the Tigers may simply journey the wave of emotion to an upset win (not that I’m assured in any respect in them).

In an analogous vein, an Adelaide outfit enjoying affordable footy of late takes on a Sydney outfit with completely nothing to play for. High spot is secured, and whereas at time of writing we don’t know whether or not the Swans will relaxation anybody, it appears extra possible than not. Plus, I don’t assume the Swans are enjoying adequate footy to be a protected guess right here even when that they had one thing on the road.

I’m not daft sufficient, nonetheless, to again comparable upsets for Geelong or Brisbane towards West Coast and Essendon respectively; the one query with the Cats is whether or not they’ll increase their share by sufficient to problem Port or GWS for second or third, and certainly, certainly the Lions can’t kick themselves out of a THIRD recreation in a row towards inferior opposition… proper?

Hawthorn, too, ought to rack up a giant rating towards a North Melbourne outfit counting down the times till a season of promise with out nice outcomes is finished; whereas on Friday night time, Collingwood and Melbourne is a frightfully powerful recreation to tip (and a disgrace for followers of the finals wildcard spherical, given this might be a correct win-and-you’re-in blockbuster if that had been taking place this 12 months). Pies for me simply because their pace needs to be an excessive amount of for a Dees staff which had their assertion win on the Gold Coast final week.

And so we come to Sunday, the place logic tells me that not less than certainly one of our three finals hopefuls will slip up.

I’ve spent all week dreading it being the Bulldogs, and I nonetheless consider the three they’re the likeliest to overlook out… however with a lot on the road, you’ll be able to’t decide towards your personal staff! A robust document in Ballarat doesn’t assuage my nerves in any respect, although, given the Giants are 1-0 down there – I’ve simply bought to hope a loss right here received’t be as devastating because the one final 12 months the place the Bulldogs had been overrun from six objectives up.

I’ve a suspicion Port Adelaide, after the brutal depth and excessive feelings of the Showdown, are due a come down, with their top-four place locked up. No Dan Houston doesn’t assist, both. Put it this fashion: if Freo have something to play for by the point this match begins, they’ll win.

Final however not least, sandwiched in the midst of the Sunday motion, we’ve bought Carlton. A stronger facet to the one which butchered the Eagles is probably going, however so too is that St Kilda will put up rather more of a battle.

With no house floor benefit to separate them, this recreation is about as powerful to select as some other on this loopy season. However as a result of I’m sticking with the Canine and comparatively assured in Freo at house, and I mentioned earlier that not less than ONE of the Sunday trio would slip up… that leaves me with no different selection than to again within the Saints.

Nice information for Blues followers, I’m positive, contemplating how my tipping has gone this 12 months.

Toby Greene. (Picture by Graham Denholm/Getty Pictures)

Dem Panopoulos

Final week: 4

Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Sydney, GWS, St Kilda, Fremantle

Flipping issues didn’t work out too effectively final week so we’ll wind it again to a standard method for the ultimate spherical of the home-and-away season, and hopefully get a couple of ideas proper.

What’s normally a mega-clash is solely a contest between two depleted groups this Friday night time, with Melbourne and Collingwood not having a lot to play for. The Magpies themselves most likely have barely extra incentive to win though they’re unlikely to stand up the ladder, given their first decide goes throughout to Fremantle; I’m utilizing that as sufficient motivation to tip them.

Clearly, the AFL has determined that if you happen to’re going to be out of the home and unable to observe footy, Saturday is one of the best time to do it. Geelong will safe the highest 4 spot with the victory over West Coast, whereas the Tigers farewell some retiring legends and, inevitably, a few of their finest lively gamers who’ll be departing as effectively.

Perhaps Damien Hardwick needs to wind again the clock and really win one other recreation on the MCG. Suns right here.

The Hawks are nigh on unstoppable in Tasmania, and can head into finals with all of the momentum after one other victory over North Melbourne this week.

As for Saturday night time, the Bombers have inevitably been a giant letdown in 2024, but they’ll end the season round the place most of us anticipated them to be. Constructive criticism is critical, sure, and the Heppell debacle most likely sums all of it up, however this isn’t a misplaced season for them in any respect. A heavy loss to Brisbane ought to deliver the curtain down – unhealthy luck, Dyson.

If the Swans need to begin off one other recreation poorly, then it’s laborious to belief them in finals. Their conflict with Adelaide is a tricky one, given I’ve refused to alter my flag tip since final October. Play higher early, Sydney.

Sunday’s the massive day. The Bulldogs’ finals spot is on the road towards GWS, who face a quest for a house qualifying last. Clearly, it’s such a hazard recreation for the house staff, and the need to separate Rory Lobb and Sam Darcy within the ruck is a little more impactful right here than towards North Melbourne given how harmful GWS’ assault has been.

I believe the Canine could be the higher probability at successful the flag, however the Giants can get the job accomplished on the day.

What number of gamers do the Blues get again? Does this high-scoring St Kilda staff hold going? That is actually laborious, however I believe I’m nonetheless leaning in direction of the Saints getting it accomplished and actually attacking what has been a disappointing Blues defensive construction.

Lastly, sure, I’m tipping Fremantle once more; and sure, I nonetheless have them decently positioned in my premiership rankings.

Patrick Cripps celebrates a aim. (Picture by Quinn Rooney/Getty Pictures)

Cameron Rose

Final week: 5

Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Sydney, GWS, St Kilda, Port Adelaide

There’s all the time a sense that the final spherical of any season can produce uncommon outcomes, whether or not there’s any reality to it or not.

However it could take one thing extraordinary for any of the Cats, Suns, Hawks, Lions or Swans to get accomplished this week, which makes for a very boring Saturday.

Melbourne v Collingwood can be a sluggish begin to the spherical, with each groups out of finals competition. The Demons not less than have a car-crash high quality to them for the time being, given their off-field disarray.

The Giants could have two house finals to play for towards the Bulldogs on Sunday in Ballarat. They’ve quietly amassed seven wins in a row, to be peaking on the proper time of 12 months, and needs to be favourites right here.

The Saints have hit a little bit patch of kind, albeit two wins in a row is kind of profitable just for a membership that has received one premiership in its unhappy historical past. They may end the season on a ‘excessive’ and provides their followers false hope for one more low season – and fairly presumably wreck Carlton’s September dream.

The match of the spherical is the final one. Fremantle have confirmed to be frauds, as is normally the case with them, shedding three video games in a row after being perched third on the ladder after Spherical 21. Fancy shedding to Essendon after being 5 objectives up within the final quarter.

Port will win this one, no matter whether or not the Dockers can nonetheless make finals or not.

Liam Salter

Final week: 6

Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Sydney, GWS, Carlton, Port Adelaide

Simply pure, unadulterated footy – with all the pieces on the road.

Must be enjoyable. Or anxiety-inducing. Or each?

The actual vital stuff begins on Sunday, however Friday night time’s opener is headline-worthy sufficient. Not that many observed, however the Demons bought a relieving win over the Suns after a tumultuous few weeks – column inches means that though they’ve re-signed Max Gawn and Jack Viney, Kysaiah Pickett could also be leaving now – and would love to complete the season with a win towards the Pies.

The Magpies resumed peak-2023 kind by incomes a miracle win over Brisbane final week, however they’ll want their greatest miracle but to make finals – which is to say, it ain’t taking place, although they’ll earn the 4 factors right here.

Saturday is chock-a-block stuffed with intrigue. Dealing with what stays a basically unhealthy West Coast at house, the Cats have the within observe to the double probability – there ain’t no method they’ll capitulate at house to the Eagles, proper?

The Lions have a more durable conflict, internet hosting the mathematically-eliminated Bombers, which actually makes me hesitate. I’ll again the hosts to bounce again, however… this might be very, very humorous.

And to re-ignite final 12 months’s Ben Keays definitely-a-goal controversy, the Swans will certainly lock in prime spot over the Crows.

To throw a smidgen of enjoyable into the race for the spoon, the Tigers might drag themselves off the underside of the ladder. Right here’s the equation: the Hawks will win by loads towards North, which implies the Tigers merely have to beat the Suns (and add a couple of objectives for share) – easy!

It’s a lot much less black and white in actuality – although the Suns have apparent troubles travelling, I’m confident-ish they’ll beat the worst staff within the league.

After which all of it – actually – comes all the way down to Sunday.

The primary piece of the puzzle is Ballarat’s conflict, with the league’s most underrated rivalry. My disclaimer right here is the Canine are exceptionally troublesome to tip – severely, there’s no rhyme or rhythm to this freaking membership. That makes a tricky tip more durable: the Canine’ finest is silly good, however the Giants have been in excellent kind. Coin flip: Giants. 

Much less of a coin flip now the Blues have found even a makeshift ahead line works, they need to be capable to lock in finals. The Saints received’t be easybeats just like the Eagles (the Cats know that) however that is the simplest of Sunday’s three video games in my eyes – the Blues have this.

Ending us off, no Josh Treacy (once more) might be a last dagger to the hearts of Freo followers – if we had hearts left after the final three weeks.  Port are peaking on the proper time, prevented stepping on a rake with final week’s Showdown win, and can nonetheless have prime two as a viable probability.

If, like I’ve tipped, the Giants win earlier within the day, the Dockers could have all the pieces to play for, however Port is hard. 

Name it reverse psychology, name it realism – the Energy ought to sneak this one. I’ll simply snort.

Ollie Wines. (Picture by Paul Kane/Getty Pictures)

Spherical 24	Tim	Dem	Cam	Liam	Crowd
MEL vs COL	COL	COL	COL	COL	?
GEE vs WCE	GEE	GEE	GEE	GEE	?
RCH vs GCS	RCH	GCS	GCS	GCS	?
HAW vs NM	HAW	HAW	HAW	HAW	?
BL vs ESS	BL	BL	BL	BL	?
SYD vs ADE	ADE	SYD	SYD	SYD	?
WB vs GWS	WB	GWS	GWS	GWS	?
CAR vs STK	STK	STK	STK	CAR	?
FRE vs PA	FRE	FRE	PA	PA	?
LAST WEEK	5	4	5	6	5
ROLLING TOTAL	117	125	120	113	121